What We'll Drive in 2010

"Green" autos have been all the rage at this year's auto shows, with fuel-sipping compacts, plug-in and all-electric vehicles headlining events from Detroit to Geneva. However, many of these cars from the largest automakers are concept or pre-production models that still won't be available by 2010.

Electrics: Part and Full Time

Vehicles that can run on electric power -- either full-time or for at least 40 miles on a full charge -- are seen as the greatest hope for reducing vehicle emissions in the short term. These vehicles will cost less than $1 per gallon of gas equivalent to operate when running on electricity. They will be available primarily from boutique auto manufacturers during 2010, as the large automakers will be lucky to have vehicles coming off the assembly line by the end of the year.

Electric vehicles (EVs) that can function as primary transportation (as opposed to the many "neighborhood vehicles" out now that aren't permitted on highways) are slowly gaining momentum from both specialty car manufacturers and the major players. EV options that will be available in limited quantity in 2010 include the Think City, a compact urban car reborn from a former Ford company, the Tesla Roadster, a six-figure luxury vehicle, and the exotic looking Aptera. Japanese automakers Nissan and Mitsubishi have both committed to making EVs as well, but even if they can deliver by 2010, production levels will likely be low.

Therese Langer, the Transportation Director of the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) says consumers looking for alternative power train options from large-scale manufacturers in 2010 will have to wait. "The Tesla Roadster is cool, but it is not designed to be a mass-market vehicle," she says.

Even with recent improvements in battery technology the electric vehicles currently in development can't provide the range of a gasoline vehicle, which will limit their attractiveness to many consumers. Alan Weverstad, GM Executive Director of Environment and Energy, says people have "range anxiety, a fear of not being able to complete their trip."

California's decision to reduce the number of electric vehicles required to be sold into the state in the coming years has diminished some of the manufacturers' drive to go gas-free. California's Air Resources Board switched to requiring more plug-in hybrid vehicles instead, and automakers are primed to respond.

For the past few years, a growing faction of consumers has been lobbying the auto industry to build vehicles that can run on battery power alone or gasoline when the batteries run out. By 2010, some of those prayers will begin to be answered. Plug-in hybrids, which are currently limited to costly conversions of Ford Escape and Toyota Prius hybrids, could be in select dealer showrooms in 2010.

In conjunction with the University of California, Toyota is now testing plug-in models of its Prius to see how they perform and their emissions, according to Cindy Knight, the company's Marketing Communications Manager. Knight says Toyota is "not ruling out having a plug-in hybrid by 2010," but having a vehicle ready that year "would be ambitious." More testing and assessment of consumer expectations is needed before a plug-in is ready for the lot, according to Knight. Today "we can engineer a decent car, but we're not sure anyone would want it," Knight says. Ford is similarly testing a plug-in version of its Escape Hybrid SUV in conjunction with utility Southern California Edison, but has not committed to a timetable for production.

General Motors is developing a plug-in version of its Saturn Vue Green Line SUV that is scheduled to be in production by 2010. The company is taking an alternative approach to electric vehicle power with its "extended range vehicle," the Chevrolet Volt. The Volt sedan is neither traditional EV (running on battery power) nor hybrid because instead of an internal combustion engine providing power when the batteries are depleted, the car relies on an electric generator powered by gasoline or alternative fuel to keep the batteries charged.

"It's really an electric vehicle" since electric power is always the source of locomotion, says GM"s Weverstad. But the Volt's arrival in 2010 is uncertain. Weverstad says the company has "talked about having the Volt on the road in calendar year in 2010... assuming that the battery technology will become production quality" in time.

John O'Dell, the editor of Edmunds.com's Green Car Advisor is skeptical that plug-in hybrids or extended range vehicles will be for sale in 2010. "[The Volt] probably won't be produced until December, and probably won't be for sale until 2011," he says. O'Dell thinks Toyota is closely gauging the Volt's progress. If GM appears remains on schedule, Toyota could "make some compromises" to have a plug-in vehicle available first, he says. "It will be 2012 to 2015 before we see a lot of alternatives to the combustion engine showing up" according to O'Dell.

Hydrogen vehicles -- powered by either fuel cells or an internal combustion engine (ICE) -- perpetually remain on the far horizon. BMW has begun limited production of its Series 7 Hydrogen ICE vehicle, but mass production is several years away, and lack of infrastructure to refuel the vehicles makes it unlikely that other manufacturers will follow. Just as in 1998, today hydrogen vehicles are projected to be more than a decade away from volume production.

Diesels Redux

The biggest changes on the roads and showroom floors entering the next decade will be the resurgence of diesels, a wider selection of hybrids and flex fuel vehicles, and existing models that have been engineered to require less gas per mile.

Edmunds’ O’Dell predicts that an unprecedented variety of diesel passenger vehicles will be the biggest change in showrooms in 2010. He says diesel vehicles, which are less than 1 percent of current car sales, will jump in popularity to become between 8 and 10 percent of passenger vehicle sales by 2010.

Diesels will become popular because "We now care about fuel economy," according to O'Dell, who cites concerns about emissions and the price of fuel for the change in consumer interest. The auto industry is reacting, with new diesel cars from Nissan, Acura, and Honda scheduled to arrive in the U.S. market by 2010. Later this year Mercedes will release a trio of "clean" diesel SUVs for the U.S. market that can meet the emission rules of all 50 states, and Volkswagen aims to reignite its U.S. diesel sales with a Golf TDI and Jetta BlueTDI .

"Virtually every automaker -- even Toyota -- has diesel plans for the U.S.," O'Dell says.

Spread of Hybrids

An increasing number of hybrid models will be out in 2010, but they are likely to be outpaced by diesels in sales. Hybrids, which were approximately 2.6 percent of passenger vehicle sales in 2007, will grow to between 6 to 8 percent of the market by 2010, O'Dell says. Toyota, which will likely continue to dominate the hybrid market, will offer a third-generation Prius to compete with a new compact hybrid from Honda.

Toyota has targeted selling 1 million hybrids per year by early next decade, according to Toyota's Knight. Toyota has also been showing off a hybrid truck concept that might be the basis for a production vehicle in the coming years. Toyota has dedicated a production line to hybrid vehicles that will use the more powerful lithium ion batteries.

Consumers who venture into Chrysler dealerships looking for a hybrid truck or SUV can choose either the Dodge Durango or Chrysler Aspen.

BMW and Porsche are expected to unveil their first hybrids aimed at the luxury market in 2010, while Mercedes plans on being first to market with a hybrid SUV that uses the more powerful lithium ion batteries.

Consumers looking for larger vehicles will have several options from General Motors. Later this year the company will introduce a hybrid Cadillac Escalade. In 2009, GM will offer dual-mode hybrid technology that is optimized for both city and highway driving in two pick-ups (GMC Sierra, Chevy Silverado), and an SUV (Saturn Vue Green Line). A second-generation hybrid technology that will improve fuel economy by 15-20 percent will be introduced in GM vehicles starting in 2010.

Having at least one "green" vehicle has become a necessity for automakers, according to Cody Lusk - president of the American International Automotive Dealers Association. "Companies that don't have hybrids are having trouble attracting customers... manufacturers with nothing green are losing sales," Lusk says, citing Hyundai and Kia as examples of companies that have lost market share because of the lack of a marquis green vehicle.

Drivers interested in reducing their oil consumption will also find a greater selection of flex fuel models that can run on a mixture of up to 85 percent ethanol. GM is expanding flex fuel engines beyond its trucks and SUVs and will have 15 flex fuel vehicles in 2009, and by 2012, half of its fleet will be able to go light on gasoline. Toyota will have an e85 version of it Tundra and Sequoia available by 2010.

Finding an ethanol pump will be more challenging than locating a dealer with E85 vehicles. Fewer than 2,000 ethanol pumps are available across the country, with availability in most states at less than 20 pumps.

Focus on Fuel Economy

Consumers won't have to choose an alternative drivetrain or fuel to cut back on their gasoline consumption in 2010. The cars we love today are being reengineered to add several miles per gallon without a tradeoff in performance.

Because of concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and the rising price of fuel, nearly every automaker is developing technology to maximize the fuel economy of their vehicles. Technologies such as deactivating cylinders on demand, variable valve timing, and turbo-charging are being implemented across vehicle lines to reduce emissions and fuel consumption.

Ford's Eco-boost technology is a primary example. The technology can improve fuel economy by up to 20 percent while reducing emissions by 15 percent through a turbocharged direct-injection technology. Ford will introduce the technology in 2009 and will install it in up to 500,000 vehicles in the next few years.

These technologies have been "floating around" for several years according to the ACEEE's Langer, but have not been available on a large number of vehicles. Automakers have recently shown a "dramatic interest in conventional technologies" for maximizing fuel efficiencies, Langer says, so car buyers in 2010 will likely see many of their favorite models with higher fuel economy ratings.

Performance enhancing technologies such as turbo-charging also enable automakers to use smaller engines. Consumers should see more four-cylinder sedans with six-cylinder class performance.

Nearly the same breadth of SUV choices will likely be available in 2010 as today, though automakers are switching the underlying platform from trucks to crossovers, according to Langer. She says sales of mid-size and large SUVs are dropping, which could lead to some discontinuations after 2010. So far -- despite the higher gas prices -- sales of luxury SUVs have been relatively unchanged.

Automakers are also being forced to increase the average fuel economy of their fleets each year to meet guidelines proposed by the federal Department of Transportation. Under the proposal, passenger vehicles sold in model year 2011 would have to average 31.2 MPG, and light duty trucks 25.0 mpg, up from 2007's standards of 27.5 and 22.2, respectively.

GM's Weverstad says it is "too early to say whether there are any vehicles we won't build any more of" to meet the requirements for model year 2011. Likewise, Toyota's Knight says she expects that the company's line of SUVs will continue to be sold for the foreseeable future. People "aren't going to have [large SUVs] just to drive them around town... they'll be used more for actually moving things," points out the AIADA's Lusk.

The largest SUVs might be languishing on dealer lots if the SUV loophole that allows small business owners to write off most of the cost of the largest trucks is eliminated during the next session of Congress.

The recent success of the micro-compact vehicles from Europe, such as the Smart Fortwo and Mini, suggests that more compact vehicles developed for international markets could show up in the U.S. by 2010. Lusk says the globalization of the auto market means that more cars will be engineered with fuel economy in mind to also appeal to Asian buyers, including the booming Indian and Chinese markets.

Beyond 2010

In the early years of the next decade, the federal government will play an increasingly pivotal role in automakers' strategies regarding fuel economy. If Congress and the new president enact tougher laws on emissions, impose a carbon tax on fossil fuels, or further raise fuel economy standards, automakers would respond with more fuel-efficient models.

Edmunds’ O’Dell reinforces that notion. "Everything can change depending on who is elected president," he says, adding that several Democrats in Congress have suggested raising fuel economy to 40 MPG instead of the current 35 MPG goal for 2020.

The next administration could also repeal the billions of dollars in annual subsidies to the oil and gas industries, which could affect the price of gasoline. If oil stays above $100 per barrel automakers might think twice about offering vehicles that get less than 20 miles to the gallon.