Transportation | November 17, 2009 |
Group Predicts 14 Million EVs on US Roads by 2020
By Andrew Williams A remarkable new study predicts that at least 14 million electric cars will be zooming around the US by 2020, and reckons that EVs could account for a startling 75 percent of all light-duty miles driven by 2040.
The ambitious claims form part of an in-depth study, called the Electrification Roadmap, backed by a coalition of business leaders including Nissan, FedEx, Coda Automotive and Coulomb Technologies.
Speaking about the findings, Fred Smith, chairman and CEO of FedEx and a member of the Electrification Coalition gushed, “Up to now, electrification seemed like a pipe dream. But we are offering a realistic, practical, achievable plan to build a transportation system that will enhance our national security, propel economic growth and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.”
The results will capture the attention of government and car manufacturers, many of whom are developing electric cars, with models like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt scheduled for release in 2010. Even so, the results are likely to be viewed as optimistic. In a recent statement, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn, one of the most high-profile supporters of electric vehicles predicted upwards of around 1 million EVs on US roads by 2015.
If the incredible objective is to be reached, a staggering one in four vehicles on the road by then will have to be electric. Although the Electric Coalition stands firmly behind its goal, it still concedes that the numbers are “aggressive” and that the government will need to step in to provide incentives and other policies to achieve them.
In an indication of the motivations behind the study, the coalition said, “The risk of sudden and prolonged interruption to steady world oil supplies looms over the U.S. and world economies,” claiming that the 2040 target would cut oil consumption in the passenger car fleet from 8.6 million barrels daily to 2 million.
An interesting aspect of the study is the coalition’s view that a national roll-out of electric cars will be unnecessary. Instead, it suggests employing government support to create “electrification ecosystems” in several major US cities.
According to David Crane, president and CEO of NRG Energy and a member of the coalition, “Introducing all the separate elements, from cars to infrastructure, simultaneously in select communities across the country will move electrification beyond the early adopters.”
Reprinted with permission from Gas 2.0
Reddit
Digg
Stumble
ShareThis
Comments By Readers
Another step the government can make is to negotiate a large fleet purchase of EV's, including for the Pentagon. That should bring prices down reasonably quickly. For state governments to do this too hasten the price drop.
Such a step ought to also speed up truly widespread consumer acceptance, especially those who have friends or relatives who work for the government, use an electrical vehicle in their work -- and like it.
Were the government to do this, buying thousands of EV's of all types, as an institution employees should talk it up, especially those in any sort of public relations sort of work.
Still another thing government can do would meet some resistance, but it's worth thinking about. I'll use taxi fleets as an example. Tell the taxi company that there will be an extra $X.XX fee per car for any that use a only a fossil fuel, but that EV's are entirely exempt from that surcharge. Alternatively, an $X.XX discount could be offered for each EV. (The surcharge would be better for the government, since it would actually bring in money.)
A related step would be to impose a surcharge -- a carbon tax -- on fossil-fuel vehicles, but to exempt EV's. Because of the disproportionate impact this would have on lower-income people who drive a fossil-fuel vehicle, I suppose there would need to be some way they could be exempt from that surcharge.
I've come to believe that while many factors have to mesh for a transition in our national fleet that it is possible and sooner than many people currently think.
Let me use China as an example. A great many Chinese still are nowhere close to being able to buy even the cheapest car available so still ride bicycles. Electric bicycles are sold there these days -- and they sell by the millions. Of course, it helps that there are dedicated bicycle lanes in many places, and may the heavens, the gods, and Superman help any car driver who even *thinks* about trying to drive in one. (I lived there a number of years, and the police were very harsh on any such offense.)
I hope this happens, and that it does so sooner rather than later.
Post Your Comment