Is it fair to say at this point that Nissan is all-in on electric vehicles? It seems more and more like the Japanese automaker is banking heavily on EV’s, and yesterday Nissan announced that by 2016 it plans to sell 1.5 million zero-emissions hybrids and electric vehicles by 2016 with its French partner, Renault.

Small Slice Of A Big Pie

Nissan Leaf sales worldwide broke 15,000 for the year this month, and Nissan is also working on a dedicated hybrid drivetrain and more electric vehicle projects. By 2016, Nissan estimates that it will have sold 1.5 million zero-emissions vehicles across the globe. Last year Nissan-Renault sold 7.27 million vehicles, accounting for 10.3 percent of global car sales. That would mean that over the next five years, if Nissan continues to sell about 7 million vehicles annually, by 2016 just 4 percent of their sales would have been of the zero-emissions vehicle type.

Not such bold sales forecasts now, is it? In fact, that falls right in line with private industry estimates that say only between 2 percent and 4 percent of consumers are truly serious about buying electric cars right now. So if anything, Nissan’s estimates are on the high side of a very low number. And most of those vehicles will probably be of the electric type, since Nissan’s hybrid offerings don’t really stack up compared to the market leaders.

Betting the Farm And the Auto Factory

None the less, Nissan has sunk billions into electric vehicle development for such a small slice of the sales pie. And if the investment in electric cars does not pay off, they could suddenly find themselves at a severe disadvantage if the market decides that hybrids, diesels, or more-efficient gas engines are the better value. This is the kind of move that could, in the long run, bankrupt a company.

But I am getting way ahead of myself. 2012 and 2013 are going to prove to be watershed years for electric vehicles, as there will be actual choices and national rollouts. Once electric cars are in every showroom of every automaker…how will consumers respond? For Nissan’s sake, let’s hope they respond better than predicted.

Reprinted with permission from Gas 2.0