Like many Americans, I tuned in to watch the State of the Union address last Tuesday to hear how President Obama planned to work with the newly elected bi-partisan legislature. The President laid out some ambitious plans to achieve the speech’s theme of “winning the future.” While these plans included a few new priorities for the Obama administration, many of the initiatives described in the speech have been part of the President’s agenda since his 2008 election campaign. One of these enduring initiatives is the development of clean energy technologies.

While a lot of criticism toward President Obama has focused on increased federal budgets and spending such as the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009, the President did not waver on his plan to invest in “tomorrow’s” energy. Perhaps in response to his critics and the $36.7 billion of ARRA funds given to the Department of Energy, President Obama explained how he’s revising the US energy policy in the following excerpt from his speech:

"We’re not just handing out money. We’re issuing a challenge. We’re telling America’s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund the Apollo projects of our time."

The reference to NASA’s Apollo program came from comments made earlier in the speech comparing the need for innovation in today’s global economy to that of the United States in the 1960s when we were aiming to put a man on the moon before the Soviet Union.

Another criticism of the ARRA is that it did not follow through on its promise of job creation. The President addressed this concern by announcing perhaps the most ambitious goal set forth in the State of the Union address:

"Now, clean energy breakthroughs will only translate into clean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they’re selling. So tonight, I challenge you to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources. Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal, and natural gas. To meet this goal, we will need them all and I urge Democrats and Republicans to work together to make it happen. "

While some may argue that nuclear, clean coal, and natural gas do not qualify as clean energy sources, let’s take a look at what this benchmark will require. To put this in perspective, in 2009, a little over 54 percent of the nearly 4 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity generated in the United States came from natural gas (23 percent), nuclear (20 percent) and renewable sources (11 percent), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Over the next 25 years, the EIA is forecasting that annual electricity generation in the United States will increase by nearly 1.2 trillion kWh to keep pace with demand – an increase of nearly 30 percent compared to the 2009 figure. If this forecast is accurate, the United States will need to generate over four trillion kWh of electricity from clean energy sources in order to achieve the President’s benchmark of 80 percent. This represents an increase of more than 90 percent over 25 years, meaning the United States would have to average clean energy additions of over 78 billion kWh per year.

The early release report of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (published in December) predicts that only 56 percent of U.S. electricity generated in 2035 will come from natural gas, nuclear, and renewable sources, well below the President’s goal. Achieving 80 percent clean energy will require enormous investments in clean technologies. Sufficiently funding this level of growth is unlikely if President Obama follows through on the “final critical step in winning the future”, reducing the federal budget deficit. While I applaud the President’s goal and pledge to fund the research and development required to keep the US competitive as cleantech innovators, I expect that he’ll need a lot of help from the private sector in order to “win the future” of clean energy.

Photo by Robb North/flickr/Creative Commons

Brian Davis is a research analyst for Pike Research with a focus on smart energy and clean industry practices.